The potential powder keg of Transnistria

© Unknown
Transnistria is a potential powder keg

    

It's really deplorable how, over the last decades, we've all had to become students in a kind of "military geography", remembering the names of regions and provinces, of cities, towns, and villages because those have become a war zone, a battlefield, an area of instability, etc. Was it Mark Twain who said that "God created war so that Americans would learn geography"? Or is it, rather, the Devil that's giving us all those unwanted lessons?

A new international conflict seems to be brewing. Now it's Transnistria, a strip of land and a state, the Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic (Pridnestrovie), located to the East of the Dniester River, where it borders Ukraine. In 1990 the region declared its independence and broke away from Moldova, thereby getting tightly wedged between Moldova and Ukraine. To maintain peace and security in the area, a joint military command structure and a tri-lateral peacekeeping force, comprised of Russian, Moldovan, and Transnistrian units, were established in 1992, with 10 Ukrainian observers joining in 1998. Ukraine was also a party to a number of negotiating formats over Transnistria, including the latest one of 2006.

So far so good, but a few days ago Kiev scrapped its 1995 agreement with Russia on military transit to Transnistria via Ukraine. With Moldova not obliging too, what this means is that the Russian peacekeeping units are kind of trapped there. Time will show whether it's a "no in/no out" situation or a compromise is still possible, but the development seems to be extremely dangerous. To understand why this is so, here is a bit of history.

Since the Soviet era, Transnistria is home to three major ethnic groups: Moldovans, Russians, and Ukrainians, with the Slavic element of Russians plus Ukrainians constituting quite a sizable majority of something about 60%. These people have spoken Russian or Ukrainian, or both, since the time immemorial, so when the Moldavian Parliament ruled in 1989 that the official language of the republic was to be Romanian (Moldavian) written in the Latin script, with 5 years given to non-Romanian citizens to learn it, this immediately created widespread insecurity amongst Russian- and Ukrainian-speaking population of Pridnestrovie.

In the meantime, pan-Romanian nationalism in Moldova, with the idea of re-uniting with Romania becoming almost a national obsession, reached its highest. That's when, amidst suspicions and claims that "the Romanians were coming back to their fascist past", Transnistria declared its independence from Moldova. What followed was a series of clashes between the sides, culminating with a most violent armed conflict, into which the Russian Moldova-based 14th Army was soon drawn on the side of the breakaway republic.

This is how General Alexander Lebed, the then commander of the 14th Army, described the situation in 1992: "650 people had already been killed and 4,000 wounded on the Transdnestrian side alone. The number of refuges was between 120,000 and 150,000. Factories, including an oil-refinery, a bio-chemical plant and a brewery, had been set on fire in Bendery, where over 50 per cent of the housing had been destroyed. In the same town, almost all the schools, kindergartens and medical facilities had been severely damaged and were no longer in use."

"I can confirm officially", he went on, "that here on the territory of Transdnister, there is no post-Communists, pro-Communists, neo-Communists nor any other kind of regime. There are simply people living here, who are being systematically, thoroughly and brutally annihilated. Moreover, they are being annihilated in such a way that the SS of fifty years ago look like schoolboys in comparison... The shadow of fascism hangs over this land of plenty. I think that our formerly great country should know about that. And it should remember how much it cost to break the back of fascism forty-seven years ago. It should stir its historical memory and remember what concessions to fascism can turn into." (Quoted in Harold Elletson's "The General Against the Kremlin.")

But back to the current situation. What makes the latest developments over Transnistria too ominous is the fact that, controlled by the authorities of Transnistria and guarded by Russian troops, there's a huge Russian, formerly Soviet, ammunition depot there, located some 2 km from the Ukrainian border. With 22,000 or even more tons of military equipment and ammunition, it's reported to be one of the largest in Europe. A gigantic powder keg, a sleeping volcano... What will happen, if it explodes? I don't know.

Yury Nickulichev is a professor at the Russian Academy for National Economy and Civil Service.

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505 trillion dollar interest rate derivatives bubble in imminent jeopardy

Now you see the bubble... soon you won't.

    

All over the planet, large banks are massively overexposed to derivatives contracts. Interest rate derivatives account for the biggest chunk of these derivatives contracts. According to the Bank for International Settlements, the notional value of all interest rate derivatives contracts outstanding around the globe is a staggering 505 trillion dollars. Considering the fact that the U.S. national debt is only 18 trillion dollars, that is an amount of money that is almost incomprehensible. When this derivatives bubble finally bursts, there won't be enough money in the entire world to bail everyone out. The key to making sure that all of these interest rate bets do not start going bad is for interest rates to remain stable. That is why what is going on in Greece right now is so important. The Greek government has announced that it will default on a loan payment that it owes to the IMF on June 5th. If that default does indeed happen, Greek bond yields will soar into the stratosphere as panicked investors flee for the exits. But it won't just be Greece. If Greece defaults despite years of intervention by the EU and the IMF, that will be a clear signal to the financial world that no nation in Europe is truly safe. Bond yields will start spiking in Italy, Spain, Portugal, Ireland and all over the rest of the continent. By the end of it, we could be faced with the greatest interest rate derivatives crisis that any of us have ever seen.

The number one thing that bond investors want is to get their money back. If a nation like Greece is actually allowed to default after so much time and so much effort has been expended to prop them up, that is really going to spook those that invest in bonds.

At this point, Greece has not gotten any new cash from the EU or the IMF since last August. The Greek government is essentially flat broke at this point, and once again over the weekend a Greek government official warned that the loan payment that is scheduled to be made to the IMF on June 5th simply will not happen...

Greece cannot make debt repayments to the International Monetary Fund next month unless it achieves a deal with creditors, its Interior Minister said on Sunday, the most explicit remarks yet from Athens about the likelihood of default if talks fail.

Shut out of bond markets and with bailout aid locked, cash-strapped Athens has been scraping state coffers to meet debt obligations and to pay wages and pensions. With its future as a member of the 19-nation euro zone potentially at stake, a second government minister accused its international lenders of subjecting it to slow and calculated torture.

After four months of talks with its eurozone partners and the IMF, the leftist-led government is still scrambling for a deal that could release up to 7.2 billion euros ($7.9 billion) in aid to avert bankruptcy.

And it isn't just the payment on June 5th that won't happen. There are three other huge payments due later in June, and without a deal the Greek government will not be making any of those payments either.

It isn't that Greece is holding back any money. As the Greek interior minister recently explained during a television interview, the money for the payments just isn't there...

"The money won't be given . . . It isn't there to be given," Nikos Voutsis, the interior minister, told the Greek television station Mega.

This crisis can still be avoided if a deal is reached. But after months of wrangling, things are not looking promising at the moment. The following comes from CNBC...

People who have spoken to Mr Tsipras say he is in dour mood and willing to acknowledge the serious risk of an accident in coming weeks.

"The negotiations are going badly," said one official in contact with the prime minister. "Germany is playing hard. Even Merkel isn't as open to helping as before."

And even if a deal is reached, various national parliaments around Europe are going to have to give it their approval. According to Business Insider, that may also be difficult...

The finance ministers that make up the Eurogroup will have to get approval from their own national parliaments for any deal, and politicians in the rest of Europe seem less inclined than ever to be lenient.

So what happens if there is no deal by June 5th?

Well, Greece will default and the fun will begin.

In the end, Greece may be forced out of the eurozone entirely and would have to go back to using the drachma. At this point, even Greek government officials are warning that such a development would be "catastrophic" for Greece...

One possible alternative if talks do not progress is that Greece would leave the common currency and return to the drachma. This would be "catastrophic", Mr Varoufakis warned, and not just for Greece itself.

"It would be a disaster for everyone involved, it would be a disaster primarily for the Greek social economy, but it would also be the beginning of the end for the common currency project in Europe," he said.

"Whatever some analysts are saying about firewalls, these firewalls won't last long once you put and infuse into people's minds, into investors' minds, that the eurozone is not indivisible," he added.

But the bigger story is what it would mean for the rest of Europe.

If Greece is allowed to fail, it would tell bond investors that their money is not truly safe anywhere in Europe and bond yields would start spiking like crazy. The 505 trillion dollar interest rate derivatives scam is based on the assumption that interest rates will remain fairly stable, and so if interest rates begin flying around all over the place that could rapidly create some gigantic problems in the financial world.

In addition, a Greek default would send the value of the euro absolutely plummeting. As I have warned so many times before, the euro is headed for parity with the U.S. dollar, and then it is going to go below parity. And since there are 75 trillion dollars of derivatives that are directly tied to the value of the U.S. dollar, the euro and other major global currencies, that could also create a crisis of unprecedented proportions.

Over the past six years I have written more than 2,000 articles, I have authored two books and I have produced two DVDs. One of the things that I have really tried to get across to people is that our financial system has been transformed into the largest casino in the history of the world. Big banks all over the planet have become exceedingly reckless, and it is only a matter of time until all of this gambling backfires on them in a massive way.

It isn't going to take much to topple the current financial order. It could be a Greek debt default in June or it may be something else. But when it does collapse, it is going to usher in the greatest economic crisis that any of us have ever seen.

So keep watching Europe.

Things are about to get extremely interesting, and if I am right, this is the start of something big.

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Transnistria asks Putin for protection from external threats

© Flickr/ Minamie's Photo

    

The representatives of 66 public organizations in the breakaway Transnistrian Moldovan Republic (TMR) decided at a Monday meeting to prepare an appeal to Russian President Vladimir Putin asking him to protect the people of Transnistria if any external threat emerge.

The meeting participants decided to add to the text of the appeal before June 1 and then send it to Transnistria's President Yevgeny Shevchuk for him to hand it to Vladimir Putin.

"We would like to appeal to Vladimir Putin so that in case of an emergence of some threat to Transnistria he, being a guarantor of peace on the territory of Transnistria ... would take all the measures needed: political, diplomatic, economic, sanctional, and, of course, in case of a threat, other measures as well," the head of the National Union of Women of Transnistria, Tatyana Dolishnyaya said.

Participants in Monday's meeting expressed serious concern with the political situation in Transnistria - namely with Kiev's decision to repeal an agreement permitting Russian forces to travel across Ukraine to Moldova, the Ukrainian military equipment near the border with Transnistria and the activation of NATO structures in Moldova.

"We found ourselves blocked, gripped in a vice, both from the side of Moldova and Ukraine. This is for the first time in 25 years," Valerian Tulgara, chairman of the Union of Moldovans of Transnistria said.

In 1990, the breakaway republic of Transnistria, with a predominantly Russian and Ukrainian population, declared its independence from Moldova. The region is now seeking international recognition.

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The eye-opening parasite that can get in through your contact lens

Acanthamoeba castellanii

    

A recent eye infection suffered by 18-year-old Nottingham University student Jess Greaney is the kind of story that fills us with horror. Greaney had keratitis, an inflammation of the cornea, caused by , a parasite that was living and feasting on her eye.

is a ubiquitous organism, found in many eco-systems worldwide. It is able to survive in harsh environmental circumstances - even in some contact lens solutions - and this is not the first occurrence of appearing in the eye. Acanthamoeba keratitis (AK) is a neglected malady frequently associated with contact lens wear and it is thought Greaney caught the bug after splashing tap water on her contact lenses.

Not a great friend to have

Acanthamoeba infection of the cornea causes severe inflammation, intense pain and impaired vision, which is blinding if left untreated. Infection begins when the parasite is at its active feeding trophozoite stage and sticks to the corneal tissue before penetrating the lower stromal layer. The resulting opacity leads to less sharp vision and eventually blindness.

Even more worrying is that besides the painful progressive sight-threatening corneal disease, the parasite can cross the blood brain barrier and cause granulomatous amoebic encephalitis, a progressive disease of the central nervous system) that often results in death.

Greaney was lucky - if you can put it that way - because she was able to receive treatment. After a week her eye was red, painful and bulged, "it looked like a huge red golf ball," she said. Treatments included clamping her eye open, keeping her awake, scraping off layers of tissue and repeated eye drops.

How does it get in?

    

Lenses can be contaminated by exposure to water during swimming, using a hot tub, washing with tap water or as a result of poor personal hygiene or inappropriate disinfection regimes, which can promote the growth of bacteria on lenses onto which amoebae in turn adhere and proliferate. In the case of Greaney it was suggested that the parasite was trapped between the eye and the lens before it burrowed.

As contact lenses continue to gain popularity (including for recreational purposes) the proportion of the population at increased risk of developing Acanthamoeba keratitis may rise.

Other Acanthamoeba infections

Acanthamoeba infections (not just in the eye) are being detected by clinicians with increasing frequency, especially as opportunistic infections in patients whose immune system is already compromised. This at-risk population is expanding as a result of increasing use of immune-suppressing therapies for cancer treatment and the global HIV/AIDS pandemic.

No vaccine is available, and the current drugs used to treat these inflammatory infections is largely insufficient, has undesirable side effects and doesn't work well in the later chronic stage of infection. Treatment also requires the application of a mixture of drugs for prolonged periods, with mixed results. New drugs, either for this or for other neglected parasitic illnesses that afflict millions of people worldwide, are not being developed. The development of cheaper and more efficient, preferably -specific, chemotherapies would be highly advantageous.

Practice good hygiene

When it comes to contact lens wearers, there have been previous efforts looking at whether contact lens care solutions can counter against Acanthamoeba. Contact lenses treated with an antimicrobial peptide have also been developed and tested in human and rabbits, but more clinical trials are still needed before they can be worn by humans.

However, there are some cardinal rules for contact lens wearers: always wash your hands and follow all instructions in handling and storing contact lenses properly. Reusable lenses should be cleaned and disinfected with powerful lens disinfecting solutions every day. Contact lens wearers should also apply make-up only after lenses are put in to avoid contact with eyeliner or mascara and lens. These are some of the "golden rules" that contact lens wearers should stick to.

Millions of people use contact lenses to improve their vision and to enhance the ability to focus or to do activities unencumbered by glasses. And overall, the risk of Acanthamoeba keratitis - and other infections - is low with proper hygiene and care. In the very near future we might even see smart lenses that can monitor the body's health conditions and measure glucose levels in the tear fluid of the eyes of diabetes patients. So don't let the horror story lead you to ditch them just yet.

Hany Elsheikha is affiliated with The European Scientific Counsel for Companion Animal Parasites (ESCCAP) of UK & Ireland.

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Part yeast, part human, scientists create a new fungus

© www.dailymail.co.uk
Making yeast more "human."

    

A living yeast that is part human and part fungus has been engineered by scientists in a feat that shows how, despite a billion years of evolution separating humans from yeast, the two species share hundreds of genes in common.

Those genes remain, in part, from the last common ancestor of humans and yeast.

"Cells use a common set of parts and those parts, even after a billion years of independent evolution, are swappable," Edward Marcotte, a professor at The University of Texas at Austin, said in a press release.

© www.dailymail.co.uk
University of Texas creates fungal strain out of human and yeast DNA.

    

"It's a beautiful demonstration of the common heritage of all living things — to be able to take DNA from a human and replace the matching DNA in a yeast cell and have it successfully support the life of the cell."

That's just what Marcotte and his colleagues did, as they describe in their study published in the journal . Although yeast (such as the Baker's yeast that might be in your refrigerator now) consists of a single cell and humans have trillions of cells organized into complex systems, multiple genes are shared between the two.

Of those, about 450 are critical for yeast's survival, so the researchers removed the yeast version of each one and replaced it with the human version and waited to see whether the yeast would die.

They wound up creating hundreds of new strains of yeast, each with a single human gene. About half of these resulted in an organism that could survive and reproduce.

While this might sound like an eerie Frankenstein-like experiment, the goal is to produce a new way of researching human genetic diseases caused by mutations.

It's actually cutting edge research, since the technique could help to reduce or even eliminate testing on live animals.

Another benefit is that the testing could lead to treatments designed for a particular individual. For example, researchers might insert precise versions of a human gene mutation into yeast and then expose the yeast to different drugs to test new therapies. As a result, the treatments could be tailored to a person's precise genetic mutation.

A similar technique could be used to test treatments for other animals too, such as dogs and cats.

"We could find out if one of the standard treatments would work on your particular version of the gene or if maybe another drug would be even better," explained co-author Claus Wilke.

Multiple genes might also be able to be inserted at once into yeast, permitting researchers to examine more complete systems as opposed to just a single mutated gene.

"This work is basically showing that you can take a fuel injector from a tractor and swap it for a fuel injector in your Toyota and it will still work, more or less, because they're both fuel injectors," Marcotte said.

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US-UK-Saudi attacks on Yemen leave 16 million Yemenis without clean water

© AFP
Yemenis wait to fill jerry cans with water from a public tap amid an acute shortage of water supply to houses in the capital Sana’a, on May 9, 2015.

    

The charity organization Oxfam says almost two-thirds of the war-hit population in Yemen have no access to clean water as Saudi Arabia continues its deadly airstrikes against the impoverished country.

The aid agency said in a statement on Tuesday that the constant Saudi bombardments have increased the number of Yemenis without clean water to at least 16 million.

"Ongoing air strikes, ground fighting and fuel shortages mean that an additional three million Yemenis are now without drinking water, raising the total number of Yemenis without a clean water supply and sanitation to at least 16 million," Oxfam said.

Oxfam's director in Yemen, Grace Ommer, said the figure is equivalent to the total population in the European capitals of Berlin, London, Paris and Rome.

© AFP
A Yemeni woman pushes a cart with jerry cans filled with water from a public tap amid an acute shortage of water supply to houses in the capital Sana’a, on April 26, 2015.

    

Oxfam said that weeks of airstrikes and ground fighting have damaged and disrupted large parts of the water network in Yemen.

The aid agency further warned that a serious outbreak of diseases, such as malaria, cholera, and diarrhea, is looming in Yemen as the people are forced to drink unsafe water.

© AFP
The picture dated April 29, 2015, shows displaced Yemeni children looking out of a man made underground water tunnel where they are taking shelter after their houses were destroyed by Saudi airstrikes in the Yemeni capital, Sana’a.

    

Saudi Arabia started its military aggression against Yemen on March 26 - without a UN mandate.

According to the UN, since March, nearly 2,000 people have been killed and 7,330 injured due to the conflict in Yemen.

However, according to Yemen's Freedom House Foundation, the Saudi airstrikes have claimed the lives of about 4,000 people.

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Numerous sea creatures killed by the oil spill on Gaviota coast, California

© Santa Barbara Channelkeeper
This young sea lion was found Friday caked in oil and shivering on Sands Beach.

    

Since last Tuesday's oil spill, more than 20,000 gallons of death-dealing crude has sickened or killed pelicans, cormorants, grebes, dolphins, sea lions, elephant seals, bass, guitarfish, spiny lobsters, rock crabs, urchins, octopi, shrimp, muscles, sea hares, sponges, anemones, coral, and whole swaths of smaller sea life along the long-protected and once-pristine Gaviota Coast.

Exactly how many creatures are being killed is hard to say because most of the carnage is happening underwater. Federal and state agencies, now in total control of the affected area, have imposed such exceptionally strict closures that volunteers, reporters, and even local biologists have been denied access.

The FAA flight restrictions now block aircraft and drones from getting within five miles of the Refugio site. El Capitan and Refugio beaches are closed until June 4, nearby fisheries have been shut down indefinitely. "All the secrecy suggests there's a big problem," said Greg Helms with the Ocean Conservancy, an environmental watchdog group. He speculated, as have many conservationists and local officials, that more wildlife may have been killed, or more oil spilled, than authorities are saying.

© Tamlorn Chase
Barely recognizable, the body of a dead pelican sits next to dozens of buckets of oil

    

According to the highly controlled information released by the federal and state unified command, 13 oiled birds have been recovered alive, and seven have been found dead, as of Sunday. Once even a little oil gets on a bird, its feathers glob together and the bird loses the aerodynamics necessary to fly and hunt. Brown pelicans who dive head first into an oil patch have no hope of survival, and those that die on the water tend to sink undiscovered. "It's really a death sentence," said Ben Halpern, a marine conservation researcher at UCSB's Bren School.

Five sick sea lions were rescued, but one died in care this weekend. If the fur and skin of big marine animals become coated with the sticky black goo, they're in danger of being unable to regulate their body temperature. Two dead dolphins were found, but with "no visible oil," officials reported. Halpern said such fatalities could have resulted from eating prey that has absorbed the toxic substance. Authorities estimated the number of dead invertebrates at "more than 50." That's likely laughably low, other researchers have said.

© Tamlorn Chase

    

The widely acknowledged and strikingly slow clean up operation was intended to keep the crude from hitting touristy locales ahead of the holiday weekend. But many marine biologists and conservationists have argued that it is just as — if not more — important to focus on the subsurface effects. "There's a tendency to protect the visible aspects of the environment," Helms said, "but you have to remember there are extremely important fisheries and resources below the surface."

The undeveloped Gaviota Coast, called "the Galapagos of North America," is one of only five places on the planet where northern and southern plants and wildlife meet. Santa Barbara conservationists and fishermen alike watch in dismay, as for miles around, oil swirls in the currents, seeps into the crannies of reefs, and settles on kelp fronds. The crude is clouding normally clear waters, blocking sea grass from needed sunlight, and glomming onto the shells and skin of critters scuttling along the sea floor. It's working its way through the membranes of plankton that nourish all manner of life, from tide pool filter feeders to endangered blue whales migrating through the Santa Barbara Channel.

Little can be done to collect oil that's sunk into the water column, Helms said, but recognizing the problem can help inform restoration efforts, such as transplanting kelp, eel grass, and surf grass in areas where they've been inevitably killed off. One critical staple of the Gaviota Coast, its vast kelp forests, provide a 3D hunting ground for otters and sea lions bobbing and weaving for fish and other food. When the plants go, so do the animals.

But exactly how oil mixes with intertidal zones and bigger stretches of ocean is still somewhat a mystery. UCSB earth science professor David Valentine said this spill, which was right along the coastline rather than in open water, was particularly dangerous. The oil, instantly churned by the waves, "smothered everything" in its path. Once the crude mixes with sand, it becomes denser than seawater and sinks to the sea floor. There, it cartwheels along with the currents, settling in low spots. Valentine and his team have already discovered deposits in nearby reefs.

© David Valentine, UCSB
“This was one of a thousand or so oil pancakes we encountered between 8 and 11 miles from shore.”

    

Much of the surface oil has been shifted southwest by winds and currents. On Thursday, Valentine said he found a seven-square-mile slick approximately 11 miles offshore. But it wasn't a uniform sheen, instead there were thousands of "floating tar pancakes" virtually invisible until Valentine and his colleagues were right on top of them.

This spilled oil is particularly heavy and sticky compared to other types of crude, which can make surface cleanings easier during the first hours of a response. But now that the slicks have spread throughout the Santa Barbara Channel, "clean up doesn't make that much of a difference," Valentine said. And where the oil will end up is anyone's guess.

What we do know is that as the miles-long oil sheen fades from the surface of the ocean and from national media attention, and as visible globs of tar are slowly stripped from rock and sand, the crude's insidious effects on Gaviota Coast's delicate food web will linger for many years to come.

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