South Front Crisis News 15 June: Will Kiev use Transnistria to provoke Russia-NATO clash?

A France Presse journalist Alexander Gayuk was wounded in shelling of the Donetsk suburb settlement Oktyabrskiy on Sunday. The journalist was taken to a local hospital. "The shelling was very intensive. I was lucky," he told the Donetsk News Agency over the phone. Apparently, Kiev government has already prepared a statement reporting that AFP journalist has shelled himself.

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The Ukrainian Defense Ministry's intention to deploy air defense systems on the border with the self-proclaimed republic of Transdniestria clearly pursues the aim of dragging Russia into another regional conflict to which NATO might be a party, which should certainly ring the alarm bell for the EU countries, the president of the International Centre for Geo-Political Analysis, Leonid Ivashov, stated. Earlier, The Odessa-based Internet resource Timer says with reference to the Ukrainian Defense Ministry the S-300 air defense complexes have been set on the border with the Transdniestrian republic. Meanwhile, the governor of the Odessa Region, Mikheil Saakashvili, has been planning to close 450-kilometer-long border between Ukraine and Transdniestria. In fact, the Ukrainian authorities will lay siege to a region with a population of half a million.

At least 10 people were killed and 20 injured when the bomb attack was carried out in Baghdad on Sunday night. Police said a vehicle with the explosives hit a market in Baghdad's Qahira neighborhood, adding that several shops and cars were burned and damaged in the attack. The Islamic State terrorist group, probably, is responsible for the attack. The city of Baghdad, constantly aimed by ISIS terror attacks, is one of the main purposes of militants' advance in the region.

On Saturday, the terrorists detonated four explosives-laden cars in a bomb attack against a local headquarters of the Iraqi volunteer forces in the area of Hajjaj, which lies on the Tikrit-Baiji road in Salahuddin Province, killing 14 Iraqi army soldiers. Islamic State claimed responsibility for the bombing.

14 June Military Report

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Biodiversity limits outbreaks of disease among humans and wildlife

© University of South Florida
A team of University of South Florida biologists and colleagues found broad evidence that supports the controversial 'dilution effect hypothesis,' which suggests that biodiversity limits outbreaks of disease among humans and wildlife. The research may be critical to understanding how and why disease outbreaks occur.

With infectious diseases increasing worldwide, the need to understand how and why disease outbreaks occur is becoming increasingly important. Looking for answers, a team of University of South Florida (USF) biologists and colleagues found broad evidence that supports the controversial 'dilution effect hypothesis,' which suggests that biodiversity limits outbreaks of disease among humans and wildlife.

The paper describing their research appears in a recent issue of the .

'The dilution effect hypothesis is important because it warns that human-mediated biodiversity losses can exacerbate disease outbreaks, yet it has been contentiously debated,' said study lead author Dr. David Civitello, postdoctoral researcher in the Department of Integrative Biology at USF.

Much of the debate about the dilution effect hypothesis has focused on whether it applies generally or only to a few select parasites. Until now, there have been no quantitative assessments to broadly support or refute it, and the lack of evidence has hampered understanding the relationship between biodiversity and disease risk.

In reaching their conclusions, the research team reviewed more than 200 assessments relating biodiversity to disease and found that the dilution effect applied broadly to many parasitic species.

'Our study found broad evidence that species-rich communities suffer less infectious disease, and the magnitude of this effect was independent of host density, study design, type and specialization of parasites, and whether the parasite infected humans or wildlife, indicating that dilution was robust across all ecological contexts examined,' stated Civitello. 'This suggests that maintaining biodiversity in nature could reduce the abundance of many parasites of humans and wildlife,' explained Civitello. 'Conversely, human-induced declines in biodiversity could contribute to increases in both human and wildlife diseases.'

According to the study's senior co-author Dr. Jason Rohr, associate professor in the USF Department of Integrative Biology, they also found similar effects of biodiversity in plant-herbivore systems. 'We also found that plant biodiversity reduced the abundance of herbivore pests. So, biodiversity can inhibit two types of harmful natural enemies, parasites and herbivore pests, and this might increase the stability and production of natural ecosystems.'

Their findings not only contribute substantially to a debate in ecology research, said the authors, but also have implications for public health and make a case for better management of natural systems, such as forests and croplands. The researchers suggest that biodiversity conservation programs might provide a strategy to minimize pests and mitigate disease outbreaks that are the consequence of human-induced decreases to biodiversity. They noted, however, that 'biodiversity does not inhibit every natural enemy in every system.'

'Our results highlight the need to move beyond debates over the generality of the dilution effect toward a mechanistic, predictive framework for biodiversity-disease interactions,' said Civitello. 'Nonetheless, a greater understanding of the mechanisms underlying dilution effects is still needed to maximize the chances of designing successful control programs for specific parasites or herbivores.'

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Anti-corruption journalist immolated by cops, allegedly under orders from minister

Jagendra Singh reported on corruption in the Indian state of Uttar Pradesh on his Facebook account, which allegedly prompted Ram Murti Singh Verma, a ruling party politician, to send police to his house to burn him alive; he died a week later of his injuries.

Amnesty International is calling for an investigation. Police have opened a case against the minister and five others. They have made no arrests.

The attack happened after he published an article and posted allegations of corruption on Facebook against ruling party politician Ram Murti Singh Verma. He used an alias, but his true identity was quickly discovered by his enemies.

Police have registered a complaint of murder and criminal conspiracy against Mr Verma, who denies the charges.

Jagendra Singh's family has alleged that Mr Verma and a group of policemen assaulted the 42-year-old journalist at his home and then doused him with petrol and set him on fire.

A local police official claimed that Mr Singh had "committed suicide" when the police arrived at his house in Shahjahanpur district to "arrest him" in connection with a case.

India: Amnesty urges journalist death probe [BBC]

Graft exposé cost U.P. journalist his life [Mohammad Ali/The Hindu]

(via /.) 

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2 children attacked by shark near Oak Island, North Carolina

Victims were 12-year-old girl from Asheboro, 16-year-old boy from Winston-Salem

Two Triad children lost at least part of one limb following apparent shark attacks about an hour apart at the same North Carolina beach Sunday afternoon.

A 12-year-old girl from Asheboro and a 16-year-old boy from Winston-Salem were injured off different parts of Oak Island, about 30 miles south of Wilmington. Both were flown to the hospital with life-threatening injuries, though both were in good condition as of Monday morning.

No names have been released.

The girl's left arm was amputated below the elbow, and one of the boy's arms was amputated below the shoulder, officials from New Hanover Regional Medical Center told NBC affiliate WECT. The girl also had tissue damage to her left leg.

Oak Island officials said both incidents happened when the victims were in waist-deep water about 20 yards offshore. Officials weren't able to confirm by Monday morning whether the same animal attacked both victims.

Officials said at least one and possibly as many as two sharks were spotted in the water after the incidents were reported. The shark was estimated to be more than 7 feet long.

The 12-year-old was injured near the Ocean Crest fishing pier sometime after 4 p.m., while the 16-year-old was injured about two miles away sometime before 6 p.m. The beach was closed after the second incident.

Oak Island Mayor Betty Wallace told The Associated Press on Monday that she didn't think there was enough time for workers to decide to close the beach between attacks. Wallace said that even if the beach had closed after the first attack, the order might not have extended to the area of the second incident.

The beach reopened on Monday, though town officials urged people to be cautious.

Town officials said Monday that both victims have a long road to recovery. Officials credited life-saving efforts by beach bystanders.

Wallace said she's not aware of other shark attacks in the area since she bought a home there in 1995.

On Thursday, a 13-year-old girl suffered minor cuts to her foot while boogie boarding near Ocean Isle Beach, about 15 miles west of Oak Island. An apparent shark bite was found on the boogie board, WECT reported.

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6ft swordfish found on UK riverbank 1,500 miles from the Mediterranean.

© SWNS
Washed up: This swordfish was found on Severn Beach, on the mouth of the River Severn

A massive swordfish was found washed up on a British tidal riverbank - an extremely rare sight in the UK.

Beachcombers saw the majestic fish - which measured 6ft in length including its bill - struggling in shallow waters but could not save it.

Experts believe the fish travelled more than 1,500 miles to Severn Beach on the mouth of the River Severn in South Gloucestershire - all the way from the Mediterranean.

Nicola Hills, 39, from Severn Beach, found the swordfish with her husband Gary.

She said: "We were walking the dog and we saw this thing thrashing about in the water.

"The first thing I thought was 'what the hell is that?' I thought it was a shark or a dolphin or something."

She added: "It looked very tired and the water was going out pretty fast. It was already in trouble. I sent my husband down there to try to save it.

"We spent about an hour and a half or two hours trying to get it to float but we were too late."

The bakery manager, who regularly walks her dogs along the sea wall in Severn Beach, added: "It was amazing. To see him pull that out of the water was crazy.

"It was a very big fish. It was at least the length of me.

"It literally took two men to carry it out of the sea. Unless you had a wheelbarrow you weren't getting it very far.

"I've never ever seen anything like it."

Swordfish, which often grow to more than three metres in length, are typically found in tropical waters where temperatures are around 18-22 degrees Celsius, such as in the Indian and Pacific oceans.

They move to warmer waters in the winter and cooler waters in the summer but it is "very rare" for them to be spotted near Britain, where temperatures drop to 6 degrees Celsius or lower.

Records show there have been less than 10 sightings of swordfish in British waters over the last 10 years.

© SWNS
Something fishy: Experts believe the swordfish travelled all the way from the Med

Only three have ever washed up dead on the seashore, predominately off North Wales, and could have been carried hundreds of miles on the current. But this is the first to be found in a river.

Charles Tyler, an expert in environmental biology at University of Exeter, Devon, said: "This swordfish is most likely to have come up from the Mediterranean.

"It is likely that the swordfish was chasing something like mackerel or salmon, or that it became caught in a net.

"The swordfish is one of the most amazing fish species.

"They have a system whereby they can elevate their body temperature and are very charismatic.

"It is rare for them to be reported in these waters and it is a real treat to see one - it's just a shame it died."

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Robert Reich: Why the Trans Pacific Partnership is nearly dead

© Unknown
Robert Reich, one of the very few members of the lousy Clinton Administration who actually gives a hoot.

How can it be that the largest pending trade deal in history - a deal backed both by a Democratic president and Republican leaders in Congress - is nearly dead?

The Trans Pacific Partnership may yet squeak through Congress but its near-death experience offers an important lesson.

It's not that labor unions have regained political power (union membership continues to dwindle and large corporations have more clout in Washington than ever) or that the President is especially weak (no president can pull off a major deal like this if the public isn't behind him).

The biggest lesson is most Americans no longer support free trade.

It used to be an article of faith that trade was good for America.

Economic theory told us so: Trade allows nations to specialize in what they do best, thereby fueling growth. And growth, we were told, is good for everyone.

But such arguments are less persuasive in this era of staggering inequality.

For decades almost all the gains from growth have been going to a small sliver of Americans at the top - while most peoples' wages have stagnated, adjusted for inflation.

Economists point to overall benefits from expanded trade. All of us gain access to cheaper goods and services.

But in recent years the biggest gains from trade have gone to investors and executives, while the burdens have fallen disproportionately on those in the middle and below who have lost good-paying jobs.

So even though everyone gains from trade, the biggest winners are at the top. And as the top keeps moving higher compared to most of the rest of us, the vast majority feels relatively worse off.

To illustrate the point, consider a simple game I conduct with my students. I have them split up into pairs and ask them to imagine I'm giving $1,000 to one member of each pair.

I tell them the recipients can keep some of the money only on condition they reach a deal with their partner on how it's to be divided up. They have to offer their partner a portion of the $1,000, and their partner must either accept or decline. If the partner declines, neither of them gets a penny.

You might think many recipients of the imaginary $1,000 would offer their partner one dollar, which the partner would gladly accept. After all, a dollar is better than nothing. Everyone is better off.

But that's not what happens. Most partners decline any offer under $250 - even though that means neither of them gets anything.

This game, and variations of it, have been played by social scientists thousands of times with different groups and pairings, and with remarkably similar results.

A far bigger version of the game is being played on the national stage as a relative handful of Americans receive ever-larger slices of the total national income while most Americans, working harder than ever, receive smaller ones.

And just as in the simulations, those receiving the smaller slices are starting to say "no deal."

Some might attribute this response to envy or spite. But when I ask my students why they refused to accept anything less than $250 and thereby risked getting nothing at all, they say it's worth the price of avoiding unfairness.

Remember, I gave out the $1,000 arbitrarily. The initial recipients didn't have to work for it or be outstanding in any way.

When a game seems arbitrary, people are often willing to sacrifice gains for themselves in order to prevent others from walking away with far more - a result that strikes them as inherently wrong.

The American economy looks increasingly arbitrary, as CEOs of big firms now rake in 300 times more than the wages of average workers, while two-thirds of Americans live paycheck to paycheck.

Some of my students who refused anything less than $250 also say they feared allowing the initial recipient to keep a disproportionately large share would give him the power to rig the game even more in the future.

Here again, America's real-life distributional game is analogous, as a few at the top gain increasing political power to alter the rules of the game to their advantage.

If the American economy continues to create a few big winners and many who feel like losers by comparison, opposition to free trade won't be the only casualty.

Losers are likely to find many other ways to say "no deal."

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Top German banker: U.S. hegemony will be defeated by Russia-China-BRICS partnership

Hellmeyer: “The USA is not a democracy anymore, it's an oligarchy!”

The article originally appeared at German Economic News. Translated for RI by Alexander Samarkin

Folker Hellmeyer, chief economist at Bremer Landesbank, has no doubts about the future of the global economic system: The axis Moscow-Beijing-BRICS will prevail against the old hegemon USA. These countries have had enough of the West, because they want to pursue a long-term strategy and not opportunism. The EU is likely to be among the losers, due to its blind sanctions-obedience.

German Economic News:

Folker Hellmeyer: The damage is much more comprehensive than the statistics show. Let's start with the economy and the hitherto accumulated damage. The view on the decline of German exports of 18% year-over-year in 2014 and 34% in the first two months of 2015 includes only primary losses. There are also secondary effects. Economies of European countries with a strong Russia business, amongst others Finland and Austria, suffer massively. As a result, these countries place less orders in Germany. Moreover, in order to circumvent the sanctions, European conglomerates consider to create production facilities at the highest efficiency level in Russia. Therefore we lose this potential capital stock, which is the basis of our prosperity. Russia wins the capital stock.

German Economic News:

Folker Hellmeyer: Germany and the EU have put their economic reliability towards Russia into question. The mutual trust has been broken by Germany and the EU. It takes several years to rebuild this trust. There are up to five years between signature and delivery in exports of German and European plant equipment. Siemens has now been thrown out of a major project for this reason. Alstom lost the contract for the railway Moscow-Beijing. Ergo, the potential damage not only for Germany but also for the EU is much more massive than current figures could express. The future damage can not be exactly quantified, but it's definitely significant.

Moreover, in the framework of the Shanghai Corporation and the BRIC countries, the axis Beijing-Moscow is planning the biggest economic growth project in modern history - the construction of the Eurasian infrastructure from Moscow to Vladivostok, to Southern China and India. To what extent the emerging countries see the sanctions policy of the EU and Germany in these mega projects as an affront not only against Russia, remains to be seen.

Apparently some participants in European politics lack the comprehension of the full scope of their actions on our behalf.

German Economic News:

Folker Hellmeyer: The measureable damage consists of loss of growth, lost wages, lost contributions to the social system and loss in tax revenue. This is valid for the past 12 months and the years to come. Thus, the people of Germany and the EU pay through lost prosperity and stability. The unmeasurable damage is an increased geopolitical risk situation for the people in the EU.

German Economic News:

Folker Hellmeyer: It is irritating indeed. People that are not only focused on "Western quality media" are surprised at the media's masking of Kiev's aggressions and the discriminatory laws implemented by Kiev's government that are in stark contrast to the claim of western values and democracy. To Mr. Steinmeier's credit, he does speak plainly behind closed doors. The question is whether the actions beyond the Atlantic support Mr. Steinmeier. I refer in this regard to the case of Victoria Nuland. Fact is that with the coup in Ukraine a Moscow-friendly oligarchy has been replaced with a US-friendly oligarchy. That was geopolitics that benifits third powers, but definitely not Germany, not the EU, not Russia and not Ukraine.

German Economic News:

Folker Hellmeyer: I don't know her personally. A lot has been written about her. This results in a picture that doesn't allow the term "unbeatably good". The fact that important positions in the Ukrainian administration are being taken by external personnel with extreme proximity to the US and its institutions, underscores the geopolitical character of the coup. Ergo the term "master plan" is at least arguable.

A prominent figure in recent German politics, not in office anymore, said in bilateral talks that US-geopolitics is best described as a game of chess on the chessboard of Ukraine with the blood of Ukrainian pawns over the boards of Moscow against the power center Beijing. I share this view.

Fact is that the emerging countries are emancipating themselves from US hegemony. This becomes evident with the creation of institutions competing with the World Bank (AIIB) and the IMF (New Development Bank). This displeases the still prevailing hegemon. The current international hot spots from Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Lybia, Egypt to the Ukraine are expressions of this clearly recognizable struggle for power. Didn't we want to establish democracy and freedom in all those countries? Let's have a look at the success....

German Economic News:

Folker Hellmeyer: The German citizen is saturated. Despite the lost business, he's still doing well. The next vacation is around the corner. The German media is, politically correct spoken, hand-tame towards US geopolitics and so are our politicians. The politicial and medial leveling of this issue is effective.

German Economic News:

Folker Hellmeyer: The relationship on the political level is broken. Yet the dialogue is still maintained from both sides. That's generally positive. Moscow's disappointment particularly about German politics is massive. There is a very realistic evaluation in Moscow in terms of German and European capabilities to articulate and live a policy independent from the US and in their own interest. In the business sector this looks different. The talk levels are being used. They are preparing for the day X after the sanctions. However, a quick revival to the pre-crisis level is unlikely. Russia is a bear. They are building new supply routes now that they will not simply give up after the sanctions policy. Arbitrariness may be "en vogue" in the West, but not in Moscow. With every day that passes in the sanctions policy, we eat up joint future.

German Economic News:

Folker Hellmeyer: We miss out on export growth, we miss out on the peace dividend. We reform the weak countries of the Euro-zone and restore their international competitiveness under hard sacrifices and then deprive them of markets. Does the left hand of German and EU politics know what the right does?

German Economic News:

Folker Hellmeyer: These risks are largely managable. The monitoring that was undertaken by the superintendence is effective and doesn't allow sustainable accidents.

German Economic News:

Folker Hellmeyer: There is a considerable difference between public statements of these organizations and their internal state of affairs. Something is brewing in the field of business. However, in regard of their public statements I'm disappointed. They act politically correct. Political correctness is limited correctness and therefore incorrect by definition.

For an export-oriented economy the issue of sanctions policy is of distinctive and for some companies of existential significance. To romance about the the primacy of politics is with regard to the mandate of the associations a partial denial of liability.

German Economic News:

Folker Hellmeyer: Anyone, who is a true democrat, who takes his duties for the "res publica" seriously, who doesn't trample on his own right to self-determination, needs to draw conclusions from these remarks. Those who do not, have deficits in respect to our set of values. I'm the wrong person to talk to. You have to ask our politicians these questions.

German Economic News:

Folker Hellmeyer: In late 2007, I enunciated in the preface of my book "Endlich Klartext" ["Finally Plain Text"]: "First the free markets die, then democracy!" In this book I also analysed the US hegemonial system. The current geopolitical conflicts are being abused domestically to demolish democratic liberties with increasing speed. I am more concerned than ever. Currently I deal with the term "terror of the mainstream". We pretend to be tolerant and pluralistic. But if you differ from the mainstream in politically sensitive issues, you run the risk of being isolated and defamed. These developments are contrary to the claims of democracy and freedom. Yes, the current conflicts cost us democracy.

German Economic News:

Folker Hellmeyer: That's right, but that debate has no political consequences in regard with the proportions in the Parliament. Over here the debate is unincisive, having said that, the Parliament is a bit more colorful, albeit hindered by the Grand Coalition in regard with efficient opposition. In the end, many Germans might confuse prosperity and liberality with the term freedom.

German Economic News:

Folker Hellmeyer: To me, the conflict has already been decided. The axis Moscow-Beijing-BRIC wins. They've had enough of the West. In 1990 these countries accounted for about 25% of the world economic output. Today they represent 56% of the world economic output and 85% of the world population. They control about 70% of the world's foreign exchange reserves. They grow annualy by an average of 4-5%. Since the USA were not prepared to share international power (e.g. votes in the IMF and world bank) the emerging countries build their own financial system. This is the future.

At the moment, the EU is being pulled in a conflict, that was caused by the US because they didn't want to share power and still don't want to, which sterilizes the EU in its development opportunities. The longer we pursue this policy in the EU, the higher the price will be and the less serious will we be taken as dialogue partners.

Without Moscow and Beijing no problem in the world can be solved. The USA could indeed act much more pragmatic than we can imagine today. The lack of the EU's and Germany's own agenda makes us look like losers.

German Economic News:

Folker Hellmeyer: For this question I'll pass. I ask for your understanding.

German Economic News:

Folker Hellmeyer: It means that the own location is being harmed.

German Economic News:

Folker Hellmeyer: In this regard I am skeptical.

German Economic News:

Folker Hellmyer: Definitely not. The stability of a democracy depends on the stability of its economy. If permanent damage is inflicted on an economy, the radicalization of a society increases. The German Empire made this experience in 1933. Aside from that, there is the option of an elected dictatorship as in an oligarchy. With this regard there is a survey of the Princeton University: "The USA is not a democracy anymore, it's an oligarchy!" Ooops, that was not political correct....

At the moment there is more at stake than ordinary people want to acknowledge. You see me deeply concerned.

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