Only a matter of time: The fighting in Ukraine could resume soon

© AFP/Getty Images

A Battle field in Ukraine.

After the elections of the past days, the Ukrainian parliament has assumed a new delicate equilibrium, with the parties in favor of a resumption of the offensive of the East in the clear majority.

Despite the approach of winter, which should be a motivation for dialogue with Moscow, Ukraine authorities do not seem willing to take that path.

In addition, Poroshenko needs a way to stave off economic default, and resuming the war would help him in this regard. There is a real risk of popular unrest due to the economic crisis, anger against the oligarchs, and inadequate heat in homes, and a renewed war would help Poroshenko repress the unrest.

Finally, the influence of the US is still very high in the government, and there are strong forces in Washington that would like to see a resumption of fighting.

Looking at the situation from the point of view of the militia, these words describe well what they think about what is happening. Here is what Zakharchenko said:

"Periods of intense hostilities will follow. We will retake Slaviansk, Kramatorsk and Mariupol. Unfortunately, it was impossible to make the peaceful settlement of focus Negotiations. We are the only ones who comply with the rules of silence. No more talks about ceasefire, of course we are not going to sit [at the negotiating table] with Kiev. "

Due to all these factors, it is highly likely that fighting will soon resume.