Kashmir at crossroads: Is a Hindu-Muslim alliance now in the offing?

© Mukhtar Khan/AP

Altaf Bukhari of the People's Democratic Party (PDP) flashes a victory sign to the media outside a counting center in Srinagar, India, Tuesday.

The party of Prime Minister Narendra Modi has made significant electoral gains in the troubled region of Jammu and Kashmir, underscoring the Indian leader's desire to seek closer integration of the troubled Himalayan region with the rest of the country.

In results announced today, the Hindu-nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) won 25 of 87 seats in Kashmir, its best showing ever in the Muslim-majority state. But the figure is far short of the 44 seats needed to form a new government. And the BJP failed to win any seats in the strategic Kashmir valley, raising concerns that political affairs and relations inside the state could become seriously polarized, at least initially.

The BJP had campaigned aggressively in Kashmir, which is claimed by both India and Pakistan and has been a source of two wars and continuous border tension. Mr. Modi himself held a series of rallies in the state at which he promised jobs, economic development and justice, while his party ran an extensive media campaign, despite being ideologically at odds with most voters.

The biggest winner from the elections, which were phased over several weeks, is the People's Democratic Party (PDP). The young party, led by a seasoned, elder political figure, Mufti Mohammad Sayeed, took 28 seats, just ahead of the BJP. Since no party can form a government on its own, the PDP is in a prime position to be part of a ruling coalition.

In some ways, analysts say, the results are unsettling for voters seeking political stability and strong government. Some 65 percent of nearly 5 million voters cast ballots, considered a healthy turnout.

Both the BJP and the PDP say they are ready to discuss a coalition government, which would represent a new track for Kashmir. "The option of forming the government, the option of supporting a government and the option of participating in a government are all open," BJP President Amit Shah told reporters in New Delhi.

For the PDP, an alliance with the national ruling party could bring greater financial assistance and development in a place where both are needed. A decades-old insurgency has destroyed much of Kashmir's industry, and mired left a generation of jobless youth; the tourism industry, once a mainstay in a spectacularly scenic valley, is moribund.

"I think we have to consider [the sentiments in] Jammu if we form the government," a PDP spokesperson, Naeem Akhtar, told reporters in Srinagar today. "Our options for [a] coalition are open."

DIFFERING POLICY STANCES

However, the two parties are starting from very different positions vis-à-vis Kashmir. The PDP has cultivated an image of a soft separatist party espousing the cause of Kashmiris and Muslims and advocating self-rule for the state, and even opening its borders with Pakistan. The party's platform called for a restoration of Kashmir's original special status and for the revocation of the controversial Armed Forces Special Powers Act, which gives impunity to Indian soldiers deployed in Kashmir.

By contrast, the BJP is known for its nationalist agenda and its Hindu fundamentalist roots. Modi opposes removing the military's impunity and his party has taken a hard line against Pakistan.

Jammu and Kashmir is the only state in India with a Muslim-majority population. It is diverse in religion and culture. The state is broken up into the 97-percent Muslim Kashmir Valley; the mainly Hindu Jammu region; and Ladakh, bordering China, which has an almost even mixture of Buddhist and Shia Muslim voters.

All eyes are now on Mufti Sayeed, the PDP leader who previously served as India's first Muslim home minister, to see under what conditions he would form a government with the BJP. Should coalition talks fail, Kashmir may find itself in a precarious place.

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The Kashmir valley and its chief city of Srinagar are nestled beneath the snowy Himalayan mountains and have been written about and praised by travelers, naturalists, and poets for centuries.

At mid-century, the valley was considered so genteel and such an example of multi-ethnic and multi-religious harmony, that Mahatma Gandhi called it the hope of India. Yet when the British quit their colonial rule, the princely ruler of Kashmir schemed to have Kashmir - 70 percent Muslim and 20 percent Hindu - occupied by India, greatly angering Pakistan, which has since claimed the valley was stolen.

Kashmir is supposed to operate with great autonomy. But as Syed Nazakat writes below, local anger at Indian-run elections in 1988 brought a militant insurgency that continues to this day and has resulted in a lost generation. Some 300,000 to 500,000 Indian troops are still deployed in the valley and are deeply resented by the now-97 percent Muslim population. Kashmir at a crossroads. Will the valley inch closer to India?

The Kashmir conflict has dragged on so long that it has consumed an entire generation and brought two nuclear powers - India and Pakistan - to the brink of war. Frustration and anger have become all too normal in a place that Mahatma Gandhi once called the hope of India.

Now after two decades of violence and more than 50,000 deaths, Kashmir is at a political and strategic crossroads. Amid an elusive peace and almost daily gun-battles, people are now flocking to the polls despite pressure by militants to boycott local elections whose results will be announced Tuesday[12/23/24].

A change of government is all but certain, and it will come amid changes of attitude in the Kashmir valley where many people are considering whether they have any real choice but to reconcile with India.

...

For Indians, the elections play as a great show of democracy. Prime Minister Modi's Hindu BJP party is keen to seek gains in a place where it has never been a serious player. Mr. Modi, who swept to power in the general Indian elections in May, is running a lavish campaign and traveled to Srinigar to speak and hold out a promise of peace and jobs. He has for the first time questioned the behavior of the Indian Army - which many foreign journalists over the years have described as a virtual occupation, with more than 300,000 troops in a valley that is 97 percent Muslim.

"I have come to give you justice," Modi told audiences during rallies.