The German question
Without a serious attempt at myth busting, it's impossible to discern what could be interpreted as a new, discreet German attempt at hegemony.
Contrary to a myth currently propagated by US 'Think Tankland', political Berlin under Chancellor Merkel is not a mediator between a still hegemonic US and an "aggressive" Russia.
The reality is Berlin, at least for the moment, would rather give the impression of singing Washington's tune - with minor variations - while chastising Russia. That's the case even when we consider the solid energy/trade/business ties with Moscow, as in Germany importing a third of its natural gas, and German industry/companies/corporations hugely invested in Russia.
Contrary to a second myth, political Berlin does not seek "stability" in Europe's eastern borderlands, but rather outright vassalage. The relentless Eastern European integration to the EU, led by Berlin, was as much a strategy to open new markets for German exports as to erect a buffer between Germany and Russia. As for the Baltic States, they are already vassals; Germany is the largest trading partner for all three.
Yet another myth is that Berlin cannot lift - counterproductive - sanctions against Moscow as long as "security" of Central and Eastern Europe is not assured. The reality is that Germany would rather exert total political/economic control over the periphery of the former USSR.
As for the EU itself, now mired in a post-democratic, un-egalitarian, austerity-ravaged toxic environment, with no discernible way out, Germany already rules, politically and economically.
Deutschland under control?
Amidst the current EU intellectual quagmire where, to quote Yeats, - think puny neoliberal ideologues scurrying under their sinecures in that Kafkaesque temple of mediocrity, Brussels - a modern Diogenes would be hard pressed to find an informed observer capable of seizing up Germany's game.
Thus the glaring exception of historian and anthropologist Emmanuel Todd, author of the seminal 2002 essay After the Empire which showed no mercy in its cartography of American decline. In a long 2014 www.les-crises.fr interview, centered on Germany, Todd hits the geopolitical ball out of the park.
Todd deeply worries about the West's dysfunction - manifested at its prime in Europe being "virtually at war with Russia". He sees the anxious, sick West's "fixation" on Russia as the search for a scapegoat, or better, "the creation of an enemy, necessary to maintain a minimal coherence of the West. The European Union was created against the USSR; it cannot do without Russia as an adversary."
And yet, behind the EU, there's the real deal; the German project, which Todd identifies as a project of power, driven "to compress demand in Germany, to enslave the debt-ridden countries of the South, to put to work the Eastern Europeans, to throw some peanuts to the French banking system." And that project of power could not but open the ominous door to Germany's "immense potential for political irrationality" - a theme very much prominent now with all those rehashes of the fall of the Reich.
Todd identifies what Lacan would dub the great European non-dit ("not enunciated"); "The key to the control of Europe by the United States, which is the inheritance of the victory of 1945, is the control of Germany."
© CP
An angry Greek protester holds a poster with a picture of Angela Merkel in a Nazi uniform during demonstrations against Germany's recovery plan.
And what about the threat to Russia from Germany? Todd strongly implies the populations of Russian language, culture and identity are being attacked in Eastern Ukraine with "the approval and support" of the European Union - which is a fact. At the same time, he interprets the Russian "silence" about it not "," but as good diplomacy; "They need time. Their self-control, their professionalism, compels admiration." Try finding this kind of analysis in CIA-infested European corporate media.
"Europe" out, Germany in
So what Todd is essentially gaming here is " And yes, he's got a compelling case.
Using a political science concept coined by Belgian anthropologist Pierre van den Berghe, Todd qualifies the German system as "un-egalitarian domination"; whatever equality is left concerns only the dominant, as in German citizens. Welcome, then, to Herrenvolk democracy - the "democracy of the master people."
Todd bolsters his case by pointing to the dynamism of the German economy as based in the former USSR satellites;
So "annexing" the populations of Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, etc, meant Germany reorganizing its industrial base using low-cost labor. But then there's a major "if"; Todd believes Germany might also "annex" an active population of 45 million in Ukraine,
Not only that's extremely unlikely; Moscow has been explicit this is a red line. Moreover, "Ukraine" is a failed state in terminal disintegration, now a lowly, de facto, IMF colony, whose only interest for the "West" is rich agricultural land to be plundered by Monsanto and cohorts.
"He hasn't seen Germany coming"
The fun really starts when Todd examines the mess are in. He had to be talking mostly about notorious Dr. Zbig "Grand Chessboard" Brzezinski;
Todd correctly notes how Dr. Zbig "has not seen that the American military might, by extending NATO all the way to the Baltic States, to Poland... was in fact cutting out an empire for Germany, at first economic, but at present already political." And in parallel to what I have been examining for years now, he hints that "the extension of NATO to the East could in the end bring about a version B of Brzezinski's nightmare: a reunification of Eurasia independently of the United States."
The clincher is to be savored like the best Armagnac; "Faithful to his Polish origins, he feared a Eurasia under Russian control. He is now running the risk to go down in History as another one of these absurd Poles who, out of hatred of Russia, have insured the greatness of Germany."
For the moment, political Germany - but not its industrialists - has chosen to continue to be subjugated to the US/NATO as Chancellor Merkel appears to be enforcing the encircling of Russia.
© Reuters/Fabrizio Bensch
A general view show the Reichstag building, the seat of the German lower house of parliament Bundestag
So this is how we come to another scenario circulating among what Bauman called not think tanks or Western intel agencies.
According to this scenario, instead of a EU trying to work with Russia, we have Berlin trying to undermine Moscow to ultimately seize financial control of Russia's immense resources; back to those good old disaster capitalism Yeltsin days, when everything was collapsing other than Russia's natural resource production.
After all the 'New Great Game' is mostly about control of the natural gas, oil and resources of Russia and Central Asia. Will they be controlled by oligarch fronts supervised by their masters in London and New York, or by the Russian state? And once Russia had been subdued, then the Central Asian "stans", especially gas republic Turkmenistan, would also be free to do German's bidding.
But for the moment, it's all shadow play. Merkel utters platitudes about the Minsk ceasefire - when every serious player knows Kiev breaks it on an everyday basis. Berlin works backstage to keep the proverbial "reluctant players" - Italy, Greece, Hungary - on board with sanctions on Russia while spinning it's doing its best to contain hysterical Poland and Lithuania.
Merkel is very much aware the US prosecutes much of its drone war out of Germany while the BND - German intel - spies for the NSA on the French, the European Commission (EC) and even German industry.
So she will never directly antagonize Washington - as she in fact mostly fears German Atlanticists, while posing about Putin and the Kremlin living "in a different world." Berlin and Moscow continue to talk diplomatically, but the mood tends to the tone deaf.
The new exceptionalism
Todd is one of the few who at least are setting alarm bells ringing. As in this formulation:
Once again, we're in the realm of exceptionalism, but now with the added, historically troubling German penchant for political irrationality. The new, remixed lebensraum may revolve around an ever-expanding export powerhouse - adding on global trade by using educated, low-cost labor. While the Reich disintegrated in a larger than life folly seventy years ago, the new deal accomplished a dream; as Todd characterizes it, there are two great today, America and
He sees Russia as a and he has not examined China's long game; thus he's not focused - as in my own case - on myriad moves toward Eurasia integration. But what he's concentrating on is no less than a thriller for the ages, a Germany rising - and the US and Germany inevitably clashing, all over again. History may yet repeat itself as (lethal) farce after all.
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