Putin on Israel's reaction to Russian/Iran missile deal, and recognition of DPR/LPR

    

On April 18, 2015, Sergey Brilyov, the anchor of the TV show, conducted an interview with President Vladimir Putin, during which he clarified a few of the answers he gave during the Q&A sessions. The clarifications concerned the question posed by Academician Torkunov concerning supplying S-300 weapon systems to Iran, and the matter of recognizing DPR and LPR. Both questions directly concerned the events in Ukraine.

: The Israelis responded to the idea of supplying S-300s to Iran as follows: well, in that case we'll supply weapons to Ukrainians. Academician Torkunov, incidentally, asked about that, but you did not give him a full answer.

: I simply forgot to.

: So what will you say to the Israelis?

: It's the choice for the Israeli leaders to make. They should act as they feel appropriate. I think it would be counterproductive if they have lethal weapons in mind. It will only lead to a new round of confrontation, to greater loss of life, but the outcome will be the same. Concerning our arms supplies to Iran, those are exclusively defensive weapons, and they in no way harm Israel's ability to defend itself.

: Could you imagine a situation in which you might consider the possibility of recognizing DPR and LPR?

: Right now I'd prefer not to discuss that, because whatever I say, it will be counterproductive. We will work in accordance with facts on the ground.

When it comes to the possible Israeli arms supplies to Ukraine, Putin's answer probably does not require further comment. It's meaning is perfectly understandable. But when it comes to recognizing the Donbass, there is some ambiguity.

There are reasons to believe that the Russian leadership has changed its approach somewhat to the Donbass problem. Especially when one considers the answer he gave to Brilyov above with the answer he gave on February 24 to Vladimir Solovyov.

: In the event of military escalation by Ukraine and the national battalions, is it possible to establish Minsk-3, or to hold a Minsk-3 conference, or for Russia to adopt extreme diplomatic measures, up to and including the recognition of LPR and DPR?

: There is no necessity in that right now—in any extreme measures. These Minsk agreements are not simply a document that was developed by the participants of the Minsk process (I mean Ukraine, Russia, France, and Germany), they were also confirmed by a UNSC resolution and have acquired the form of an international legal act, de facto supported by the entire international community. So that's a whole different story, as they say. And we are counting on their implementation. And if they are implemented, they will serve as the pathway toward regulating the situation in that part of the country.

As we can see, less than two months ago Putin felt that there is no necessity to recognize DPR and LPR, and said that rather openly. But today he answered the same question differently: "we will act on the basis of facts on the ground."

Comment: Minsk 2 provides the legal cover and justification for Russia's position on the Ukraine crisis. At least on paper, and in principle, Kiev will bear the brunt of responsibility for lack of implementation. But it's doubtful anyone thought or thinks that the agreements will actually be implemented. So, with the legalities there in the background, Russia is free to do what Putin says above, and which J. Hawk comments on: de facto recognition of DPR and LPR in every way BUT on paper. Another smart move on Putin's part. And there's little the U.S. and Poroshenko can do about it but continue to cry wolf about non-existent Russian invasions.

On that note, Ukraine must be in the by now for "Country invaded the most times by Russia in one year". What are we at not, 197 times?